A good metals watchlist is not a bucket of tickers. It is a shortlist of instruments with clear reasons to care, specific signals to monitor, and prewritten triggers that convert observation into action.
The point is fewer, better decisions, made on days that matter. If the goal is to trade gold, silver, copper and friends with a cleaner process, start by understanding the product set you will use and how liquidity flows in your market.
For product specifics and accessible instruments, review the basics of metal trading before you sketch the list.
Step 1: Decide what belongs on the list
Split the universe into three buckets.
- Monetary metals: gold, silver. These respond first to real yields, the dollar, policy language, and risk sentiment.
- Industrial bellwethers: copper, aluminum, nickel. These track global growth, Chinese demand, power costs, and inventories.
- PGMs and niche plays: platinum, palladium, sometimes tin or zinc. These are sensitive to auto and industrial cycles, supply disruptions, and substitution narratives.
Keep no more than six active names. You can rotate monthly if the market narrative changes, but the day to day list should stay tight.
Step 2: Frame the macro drivers that move them
For each metal, document three to five dominant drivers. Examples:
- Gold: US real 10-year yield, DXY, central bank net purchases, options skew at key expiries, ETF flows.
- Silver: all of the above plus solar and electronics demand proxies, gold silver ratio extremes.
- Copper: China PMIs, property stimulus headlines, LME and SHFE stocks, treatment charges for smelters, energy prices.
- Aluminum and nickel: power prices, sanctions, production curbs, freight and logistics disruptions.
- Platinum and palladium: auto production data, catalytic converter substitution, South African and Russian supply news.
Your watchlist should show these drivers next to the instrument, not buried in a separate note.
Step 3: Add the data cadence
Metals are calendar heavy. Build a weekly rhythm.
- Monthly anchors: global PMIs, US CPI and PPI, China trade, industrial production, retail sales, jobs, central bank meetings, OPEC updates.
- Weekly cadence: US jobless claims, energy inventory data, positioning reports.
- Exchange specifics: LME warehouse stocks, canceled warrants, notable delivery notices, holiday schedules that change settlement behavior.
Tag each upcoming release with expected impact and the pairs it tends to move. When the day comes, you do not want to be guessing which metal cares.
Step 4: Track the term structure
Curve shape tells you if the market is tight or comfortable.
- Backwardation usually signals near term scarcity. It can reward roll holders and favor pullbacks for entries in uptrends.
- Contango implies carry cost for longs. It asks for more selective timing or shorter holds.
Write the curve state for each metal on Sunday and note any week over week change. If copper flips from contango to flat, that is a signal before price breaks.
Step 5: Add inventory and flow markers
Stocks and flows are the industrial heartbeat.
- LME and SHFE inventory trends, not just levels
- Canceled warrants as early hints of withdrawals
- ETF creations or redemptions for gold and silver
- Visible changes in smelter treatment charges for copper
These do not fire every day, but when they shift, they shift the narrative.
Step 6: Define technical levels that matter
Mark structure on higher time frames first, then drop to execution frames.
- Monthly and weekly swing highs and lows, anchored VWAPs from major events, value areas from volume profile
- The 50 and 200 day moving averages, not as signals but as shared reference points
- Average true range for the week, so stops and targets fit the current storm, not last month’s weather
Your watchlist should show one or two actionable levels per instrument, not twenty.
Step 7: Prewrite triggers
Signals are observed. Triggers are executed. Each watchlist line needs at least two triggers you can act on without debate.
Examples:
- Break and hold: if gold reclaims a weekly level after US CPI with real yields easing, enter on a retest with stop below the reclaimed level, first target the prior swing.
- Inventory impulse: if copper pops on a sharp LME draw with futures curve flattening, buy first dip that holds above pre news range, stop just below range low.
- Mean reversion: if silver overshoots on a one day options driven spike into a monthly resistance, fade with half size and a tight time stop, cover into the first sign of order book absorption failing.
Write these in short language. Triggers need to be obvious when screens are busy.
Step 8: Correlation sanity checks
In metals, correlations keep you out of silly trades.
- Gold up while real yields rise hard is rare and often fades
- Copper rally with China PMIs contracting requires another driver, perhaps stimulus chatter or inventories
- Silver rally that lags gold by more than a day often plays catch up or signals a tired move
Add a quick correlation glance to your pre trade checklist. It saves frustration.
Step 9: Respect venue and clock
Liquidity is a feature. LME hours, London open, and New York overlap shape spreads and follow through. Your watchlist should show preferred trading windows for each metal and product. If you trade CFDs or spot contracts, note the broker’s typical spread behavior during event minutes. If you trade futures, track the pit and electronic sessions with rollover dates and first notice days to avoid delivery traps.
Step 10: Risk rules that keep you available
Metal markets can gap on policy or plant outages. Two guardrails keep you in the game.
- Fixed fractional risk, constant across the week
- A daily loss cap that shuts down the platform when hit
The watchlist can display both, so size choices remain honest when narrative is loud.
A compact template you can copy
For each instrument, keep one row with these columns:
- Drivers, ranked by current relevance
- Term structure state and week over week change
- Inventory or flow notes
- Two key levels with context
- Triggers A and B in one sentence each
- Preferred window and product, plus typical spread
- Risk note for the day
This fits on one screen and gets used. Anything larger becomes a report that no one reads.
Bringing it together on a Monday
Start the week by pruning the list, refreshing the drivers, and updating curves and levels. Set alerts at your critical prices. If nothing is near a trigger, do not invent trades. Metals reward patience. Most of the month is preparation for the handful of sessions where the narrative, the curve, the calendar, and the chart finally line up.
Where the Edge Usually Hides
The real advantage is not a magic indicator. It is a disciplined watchlist that turns complex metal markets into a small set of prepared moments. When drivers shift, you see it on the row. When price reaches a level on an event day, the trigger is already written. That structure cuts the number of bad decisions and lets you press when conditions finally agree. Over time, the list becomes a quiet teacher, and the account tells you it is working.